Branch nominations do not guarantee victory for Ramaphosa

Branch nominations do not guarantee victory for Ramaphosa

- Cyril Ramaphosa has the majority of nominations but that does not assure victory

- The number of delegate who will ultimately support each candidate is not known

- The ANC Women's and Youth league will have a large say in who will be the next president of the ANC

Presidential hopeful Cyril Ramaphosa has received the most branch nominations, this does not necessarily mean that he is assured victory at the elective conference.

Ramaphosa has secured more than half of the nominations and his opposition Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma took most of what was left over.

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Branch nominations are not the same as votes and the process of electing the next ANC president is not an exact science.

Each ANC branch can send delegates proportional to the number of members in the branch. The branch can send one delegate for its first 100 members and another for every additional 250 members.

Dlamini-Zuma has won more nominations in provinces with larger branches but it is very difficult to work out exactly how many delegates are on her side.

The range of support a candidate can receive is large, in Ramaphosa's case, he may receive between 30-60% of the votes.

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The outcome of the ANC presidential election will more than likely be decided by Mpumalanga, a large number is the province's branches voted for 'unity' instead of a particular candidate. The province also boasts the second largest number of ANC members in the country.

Added to that branch delegates only account for 90% of the votes, the last ten percent will be determined by the Youth, Women's and Veterans leagues. Zuma is also a factor, he has publicly supported his former wife, Dlamini-Zuma and his influence may sway delegates' in her favour.

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