- The ANC will meet later this week to decide on their new president
- There is a big chance the party will split again especially if Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma wins
- Currently it is between Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Cyril Ramaphosa to be the new ANC president
The ANC presidential elections will take place from December 16 to 20. The winner will replace president Jacob Zuma as party leader, also becoming the ANC’s presidential candidate for the 2019 national elections.
More importantly these elections will deliver the largest chance of a split in the party since it was established 105 years ago.
Dlamini-Zuma and Ramaphosa have both called for unity in the ANC during their campaigns. But they have different thoughts on how to achieve this.
Dlamini-Zuma wants ‘radical economic transformation’ to take place to increase the wealth of the black majority.
Ramaphosa wants to stamp out corruption and revive the economy.
Briefly.co.za has learned that analyst believe the split is most likely to occur if Dlamini-Zuma wins. According to Mpumelelo Mkhabela, a political analyst at the University of Pretoria’s Center of Governance Innovation, Ramaphosa has a likelier chance to establish a new party and gain supporters.
From News24 Mkhabela is quoted as saying: ‘It would be inconceivable for Ramaphosa to unite behind the vision of the people who are backing Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.’
This would not be the first time the ANC has split apart. Former army general, Bantu Holomisa, established the United Democratic movement in in 1997. Former ANC chairman, Mosiuoa Lekota, formed the Congress of The People in 2008.
Julius Malema, former ANC Youth League president, was the most recent. Malema, who was expelled from the ANC, established the Economic Freedom Fighters in 2013.
ANC support is at its lowest ever. 2016’s municipal elections saw them lose control of Pretoria and Johannesburg.
They could possibly lose the outright majority they’ve had since 1994, when Nelson Mandela led them to power.
There is a 90% chance the party will split if Rhamposa loses. This according to Benedict Dube, a political analyst at the Xubera Institute for Research and Development. If Ramaphosa wins, he thinks the party will remain intact.
The Congress of South African Trade Unions and the South African Communist Party both back Ramaphosa. They have endorsed Ramaphosa to lead the ANC coalition of which they are a part. Dube says COSATU and the SACP would probably push to form a new party if Ramaphosa loses.
Mpumelelo Mkhabela thinks it would be difficult for Dlamini-Zuma to find enough support to start a break-away party should she lose.
President Jacob Zuma’s rule has been infamous for its scandals. With the Nkandla saga and NPA boss Shaun Abrahams being told to leave his office just a few that come to mind.
It is unlikely that either Dlamini-Zuma or Ramaphosa would give-up their claims to be the leader of the ANC.
Ivor Sarakinsky, academic director at the University of the Witwatersrand’s School of Governance in Johannesburg, thinks that to keep the party unified, personal ambitions and interest will need to be put aside by the new leadership. Sarakinsky said it is too early to tell what the outcome will be if they can’t.
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